Notre Dame vs Syracuse

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 02:09 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Notre Dame / Spread / -35.5 at -110 / 52% / Notre Dame’s dominant defense and Syracuse’s injury-plagued offense support covering the large spread, with simulation showing a 52.1% cover rate amid favorable line stability.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 51.5 at -110 / 51% / Both teams’ recent low-scoring trends and Notre Dame’s havoc rate limiting explosive plays favor the under, aligning with an average simulated total of 49.2 points.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Notre Dame / Moneyline / -5000 / 97% / Overwhelming edge in SP+ ratings and home-field advantage gives Notre Dame a 97% win probability against a struggling Syracuse squad.]

Notre Dame vs Syracuse on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets

[Notre Dame 82% / Syracuse 18%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Notre Dame 68% / Syracuse 32%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -34.5 and moved to -35.5 with balanced action, showing stability despite heavy public favoritism toward Notre Dame.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Notre Dame spread / Consensus from sharp money and simulation probabilities indicates value in the favorite, as public overreaction creates a slight edge without reverse line movement.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Notre Dame | 97.0% |
| Win % for Syracuse | 0.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Notre Dame | 52.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.9% / Under: 51.1% |
| Average Total Points | 49.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [25.4, 44.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jeremiyah Love / Over Rushing Yards / 120.5 at -115 / 72% / Love’s 7.2 yards per carry average against weak fronts and Syracuse’s run defense allowing 4.8 YPC in recent games support the over, boosted by high usage in blowout scenarios.
Player Prop #2: Steve Angeli / Under Passing Yards / 185.5 at -110 / 68% / Angeli faces Notre Dame’s top-10 havoc rate, with Syracuse’s offense averaging just 210 passing yards per game; injuries limit protection, favoring the under.
Player Prop #3: Jaden Greathouse / Over Receiving Yards / 45.5 at -120 / 65% / Greathouse returns from questionable status with a 62% catch rate on targets; Notre Dame’s secondary depth tested by injuries, projecting volume in a pass-heavy script.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Notre Dame, aligning with sharp money and mathematical models due to the Irish’s superior SP+ ratings and Syracuse’s poor form (3-8 record). Following the public is optimal here, as no contrarian edges emerge from line movement or injuries—Syracuse’s missing rusher further tilts the scales. Overall game scoring outlook points low, with Notre Dame’s defense holding opponents to 18.2 PPG and both teams trending under in 70% of recent matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Notre Dame] — Overwhelming data convergence supports the favorite as the highest-probability outcome.

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