Notre Dame vs Bellarmine

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-19 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-19 07:30 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Notre Dame / Spread / -20.5 at -110 / 58% / Notre Dame’s superior adjusted efficiency and home advantage overpower Bellarmine’s weaker offense, with recent form showing dominant wins against similar opponents.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams exhibit strong defensive metrics in early season play, with low tempo and limited explosive plays suggesting a controlled, lower-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Notre Dame / Moneyline / -2500 / 92% / Overwhelming talent disparity and historical dominance make Notre Dame the clear favorite, backed by simulation projecting a decisive victory.

Notre Dame vs Bellarmine on 2025-11-19

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Notre Dame 82% / Bellarmine 18%

💰 Money Distribution
Notre Dame 75% / Bellarmine 25%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -19.5 and moved to -20.5 with balanced action, indicating stability and no significant sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Notre Dame spread due to line value against true probability from efficiency ratings and home-field edge.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Notre Dame | 92% |
| Win % for Bellarmine | 8% |
| Spread Cover % for Notre Dame | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 148 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8, 36] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Markus Burton / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 72% / Burton’s high usage rate (28%) and efficiency against mid-major defenses support exceeding this line, averaging 20+ in early games with favorable matchup.

Player Prop #2: Tae Davis / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 68% / Davis dominates the glass at home (avg 9 RPG), and Bellarmine’s weak interior defense allows 35% offensive rebound rate to opponents.

Player Prop #3: Juston Betz / Under Points / 12.5 at -105 / 65% / Betz faces Notre Dame’s stout perimeter D (top-50 in opponent 3P%), projecting under based on his 10 PPG average against power conferences.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Notre Dame, aligning with sharp money and mathematical projections, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with Notre Dame’s defense limiting Bellarmine’s output while controlling pace. No major injuries alter the dynamics, reinforcing the edge on the spread.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Notre Dame — superior metrics and consensus action confirm the highest probability of success.

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