Bradley vs UMass Lowell

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-19 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-19 07:39 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Bradley / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 60% / Bradley’s strong home defense and recent form against similar opponents give them an edge to cover, supported by adjusted efficiency ratings showing dominance in rebounding and turnover creation.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit high tempo and poor defensive rebounding percentages in the current season, leading to games averaging above the line, with recent trends favoring overs in neutral-site matchups.

💰 Best Bet #3 Bradley / Moneyline / -250 / 65% / Home-court advantage and superior offensive efficiency (top-100 KenPom) make Bradley the clear favorite against UMass Lowell’s middling road performance.

Bradley vs UMass Lowell on 2025-11-19

Game Times
ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Bradley 70% / UMass Lowell 30%

💰 Money Distribution
Bradley 55% / UMass Lowell 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Bradley -4.5 but moved to -5.5 amid sharp action on the home team despite public leaning, indicating professional money influencing the shift.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Bradley spread; implied probability undervalues Bradley’s home win rate (68% in simulations) compared to market at 62%, creating value after adjusting for UMass Lowell’s road inefficiencies.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Bradley | 65.00% |
| Win % for UMass Lowell | 35.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Bradley | 58.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.00% / Under: 45.00% |
| Average Total Points | 152.80 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.50, 18.20] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Duke Deen / Over Points / 15.5 at -115 / 70% / Deen’s usage rate exceeds 25% in home games, averaging 18.2 points against mid-major defenses like UMass Lowell’s, which rank bottom-150 in opponent eFG%.
Player Prop #2: Ayinde Hikim / Under Assists / 4.5 at -110 / 65% / Hikim’s assist numbers drop on the road due to Bradley’s top-200 pressure defense, hitting under in 4 of last 5 away contests with similar turnover-forcing rates.
Player Prop #3: Connor Hickman / Over Rebounds / 5.5 at -120 / 68% / Hickman’s rebounding spikes at home (6.8 avg), exploiting UMass Lowell’s weak offensive rebounding percentage (28.5%), allowing second-chance opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Bradley, but divergent money distribution suggests sharp resistance on UMass Lowell, though math supports following the favorite due to Bradley’s superior adjusted metrics and home splits. No strong case for fading as EV aligns with consensus on the spread. Game scoring outlook points to a moderate-paced affair with potential for over if turnovers remain low, given both teams’ average defensive efficiencies allowing 72+ points per game.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Bradley — superior form and matchup advantages confirm the highest probability of success.

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