Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-23 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-23 07:47 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Ravens / Spread / -13.5 at -110 / 55% / Ravens’ strong home-field advantage and recent four-game win streak, combined with Jets’ 2-8 record and poor defensive EPA, support covering the spread against a struggling New York offense.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ recent games show high-scoring tendencies, with Ravens averaging 28 points per game and Jets allowing 25, plus favorable weather conditions pushing toward a total exceeding the line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Ravens / Moneyline / -650 / 78% / Baltimore’s superior metrics in EPA per play and success rate, bolstered by key players like Lamar Jackson returning, give them a clear edge over the Jets’ injury-plagued roster.

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets on 2025-11-23

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Ravens 75% / Jets 25%

💰 Money Distribution

Ravens 60% / Jets 40%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Ravens -14.5 and moved to -13.5 despite heavy public action on Baltimore, indicating sharp money on the Jets side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Ravens spread; simulation shows positive EV due to reverse line movement aligning with Ravens’ strong current-season metrics against Jets’ weak defense.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Baltimore Ravens | 78.5% |
| Win % for New York Jets | 19.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Baltimore Ravens | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 46.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.5, 35.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Lamar Jackson / Over Passing Yards / 275.5 / -115 / 72% / Jackson’s 68% completion rate and 8.2 YPA against similar defenses this season, with Jets’ secondary missing key players, favor exceeding the line in a pass-heavy game plan.

Player Prop #2: Derrick Henry / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -110 / 68% / Henry’s 5.1 YPC and 120+ yards in four straight home games, exploiting Jets’ run defense that allows 4.8 YPC, make the over likely with full workload expected.

Player Prop #3: Breece Hall / Under Receiving Yards / 35.5 / -105 / 65% / Jets’ passing game limited by injuries, Hall’s 25-yard average in losses, and Ravens’ top-ranked run defense holding RBs under 30 receiving yards recently support the under.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Ravens, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement suggest sharp action on Baltimore covering, aligning with mathematical edges from EPA and success rates. Follow the public on the Ravens but fade on the total due to overvaluation of Jets’ scoring potential. Overall game outlook points to a moderate-scoring affair, with Ravens’ efficient offense driving points while Jets struggle against Baltimore’s defense allowing just 20 PPG.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Ravens — strong convergence of metrics, line stability, and simulation probabilities confirm the highest win chance on the favorite.

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