Pittsburgh Penguins vs Seattle Kraken

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-22 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:03 PM EST

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Seattle Kraken on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Pittsburgh Penguins / Puck Line / -1.5 at +140 / 55% / Penguins hold a home-ice edge with key forwards like Crosby and Malkin active, while Kraken injuries to McCann and Kakko weaken their depth; simulation shows 52% cover rate aligning with recent form.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank mid-pack in xGF per 60, Penguins’ depleted defense and Kraken’s road fatigue suggest low-scoring affair, with average simulated goals at 5.3 favoring under.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Pittsburgh Penguins / Moneyline / -117 / 58% / Home advantage and superior Corsi% in recent games give Penguins the edge over travel-weary Kraken, supported by 58% win probability in simulations.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Pittsburgh Penguins | 58% |
| Win % for Seattle Kraken | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Pittsburgh Penguins | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, +2.1] |

💸 Public Bets
[Pittsburgh Penguins 65% / Seattle Kraken 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Pittsburgh Penguins 55% / Seattle Kraken 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
[Line opened at Penguins -115 ML and held steady at -117 despite public leaning, indicating sharp money stabilizing the favorite without major shifts.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Penguins moneyline; implied probability of 54% vs. estimated true win rate of 58% from simulations and metrics like Penguins’ home xGA advantage.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Sidney Crosby / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -120 / 65% / Crosby’s high usage on top line and power play against Kraken’s average PK (78% kill rate) supports consistent production, hitting in 70% of home games this season.
Player Prop #2: Evgeni Malkin / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -110 / 70% / Malkin’s shot volume averages 3.2 per game with Mantha drawing coverage, exploiting Kraken’s defensive zone starts; over in 75% of recent outings.
Player Prop #3: Matty Beniers / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at +110 / 60% / Beniers thrives on second line with Eberle, facing Penguins’ injury-hit blue line; contributes in 65% of road games, aided by power-play opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors the Penguins heavily, but money distribution shows divergence with sharper action balancing the Kraken side, suggesting value in following the home favorite where simulations confirm an edge. Penguins’ injuries to Jarry and Rakell are offset by depth, while Kraken’s absences like McCann limit scoring punch. Overall game outlook points to a low-scoring contest under 5.5, given both teams’ mid-tier shooting percentages and fatigue factors.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Pittsburgh Penguins — simulations and home metrics provide the strongest probability of a win.

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