Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-22 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:05 PM EST

Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs on 2025-11-22

💰 Best Bet #1 [Toronto Maple Leafs / +1.5 / -170 / 68% / Simulation shows strong cover probability for the underdog puck line, supported by Toronto’s recent form against Montreal despite injuries thinning both rosters; line movement favors value here as public leans home.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 56% / Both teams’ defenses have struggled in recent games, with Montreal allowing 5+ goals in four straight and Toronto’s power play exploiting weak penalty kills; average simulated total of 6.3 edges toward over.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Toronto Maple Leafs / Moneyline / +120 / 62% / Toronto holds a clear edge in win probability per simulation, bolstered by historical dominance in the rivalry (9-1 last 10 meetings) and Montreal’s five-game skid, creating positive EV against home favorite odds.]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Montreal 65% / Toronto 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Toronto 55% / Montreal 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Montreal -130 ML and moved to -140 with heavy public action on the home side, while puck line held steady at Toronto +1.5 -170; total steady at 6.5 despite slight over tick in early betting.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.2% on Toronto ML and +1.5 cover; divergence between public percentages and money flow indicates sharp interest in Toronto, aligned with simulation win probability exceeding implied odds by 16.5 points.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Montreal Canadiens | 38% |
| Win % for Toronto Maple Leafs | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Montreal Canadiens +1.5 | 68% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 6.5: 56% / Under 6.5: 44% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, +1.4] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the home Canadiens amid their rivalry hype and Toronto’s injury woes, but money distribution and line stability point to sharp action on the Leafs, creating a fade opportunity backed by simulation metrics. Follow the contrarian side where EV converges with Toronto’s xGF edge and Montreal’s defensive collapse (27 goals allowed in last five). Overall game outlook leans toward a moderate-scoring affair, with over favored slightly due to power-play matchups but under supported by goalie rest factors.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Toronto Maple Leafs] — mathematical probability favors the away underdog given form, injuries, and market signals.

Highlights unavailable.