Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-23 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-23 06:00 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Blackhawks / Spread / +1.5 at -125 / 70% / Blackhawks cover with high probability due to Avalanche’s back-to-back schedule and travel fatigue after three games in four days, supported by simulation showing 70% cover rate and home-ice resilience against a streaking but road-weary opponent.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 55% / Expect a lower-scoring affair with Avalanche’s key injuries limiting offense and Blackhawks’ defensive setup at home, aligning with recent trends of unders in similar fatigued matchups and a simulated average of 6.2 goals.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Colorado Avalanche / Moneyline / -180 / 65% / Avalanche’s superior form with eight straight wins and strong underlying metrics like high-danger chances give them the edge despite road challenges, backed by 65% win probability in simulations.]

Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche on 2025-11-23

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[30% Chicago Blackhawks / 70% Colorado Avalanche]

💰 Money Distribution

[40% Chicago Blackhawks / 60% Colorado Avalanche]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Avalanche -1.5 (+120) and moved slightly to -1.5 (+110) despite heavy public action on Colorado, indicating some sharp resistance on the Blackhawks side amid their travel and rest concerns.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Blackhawks +1.5 / Positive EV derived from reverse line movement against public betting, combined with Avalanche’s fatigue factors and simulation probabilities showing strong cover value without overvaluing the favorite’s streak.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Blackhawks | 35% |
| Win % for Colorado Avalanche | 65% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Blackhawks | 70% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 6.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.5, 2.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Connor Bedard / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -115 / 75% / Bedard’s high usage rate (averaging 3.8 shots per game in 2025 season) against a fatigued Avalanche defense boosts likelihood, with recent home games showing consistent volume regardless of matchup pressure.

Player Prop #2: Nathan MacKinnon / Over Points / 1.5 at +120 / 70% / MacKinnon’s elite production (1.8 points per game) thrives in high-pace games, and with Landeskog back in the lineup, Colorado’s power play edges over a Blackhawks penalty kill ranked bottom-10, supported by xGF metrics favoring multi-point outings.

Player Prop #3: Cale Makar / Over Assists / 0.5 at -130 / 72% / Makar’s quarterbacking role on the top power play yields 1.2 assists per game average, amplified by matchups against Chicago’s weaker defensive pairings and his historical dominance in road games with positive Corsi differentials.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Avalanche due to their winning streak, but money distribution shows divergence with sharper action on the Blackhawks, supported by reverse line movement and fatigue context. Fading the public aligns with mathematical edges here, as simulations and advanced metrics highlight value in the underdog cover rather than forcing the favorite. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, with both teams’ defensive efficiencies (Avalanche allowing 2.8 GA/game recently) and injuries tempering offensive output in a controlled, lower-event matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Chicago Blackhawks] — the combination of line movement, money signals, and simulation probabilities points to the highest win rate on the spread value against an overbet favorite.

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