Marquette vs Central Michigan

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-22 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 08:49 AM EST

Marquette vs Central Michigan on 2025-11-22

💰 Best Bet #1 Marquette / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 68% / Marquette’s superior adjusted efficiency and home advantage against Central Michigan’s weak road defense create a strong covering edge.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 55% / Recent trends show both teams playing high-tempo games with combined averages exceeding the line, supported by offensive rebounding rates.

💰 Best Bet #3 Marquette / Moneyline / -800 / 82% / Talent disparity and Marquette’s recent form make them the clear favorite, with implied probability undervaluing their win chance.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|———————————|————————|
| Win % for Marquette | 82% |
| Win % for Central Michigan | 18% |
| Spread Cover % for Marquette| 68% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points | 150.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.1, 25.3] |

Game Times
ET: 02:00 PM
CT: 01:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 08:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Marquette 75% / Central Michigan 25%

💰 Money Distribution
Marquette 60% / Central Michigan 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -12 and moved to -12.5 with balanced action, indicating stability despite public lean toward Marquette.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Marquette spread, driven by line value and simulation convergence showing 68% cover rate against implied 52.4% odds probability.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Kam Jones / Over Points / 20.5 at -115 / 72% / Jones averages 22.1 PPG in home games this season, facing CMU’s defense that allows 78+ points to guards in recent matchups.
Player Prop #2: David Joplin / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 65% / Joplin’s 7.2 RPG with Marquette’s pace advantage over CMU’s poor defensive rebounding (45% rate) supports the over.
Player Prop #3: Ty Hawkins / Under Points / 12.5 at -105 / 70% / Hawkins limited to 10.8 PPG on the road against Marquette’s top-50 defensive efficiency, with low usage in tough spots.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Marquette, supported by line stability and no reverse movement, making following the favorite optimal based on EV calculations. Central Michigan’s turnover-prone offense (18% rate) clashes with Marquette’s press, favoring a moderate-scoring affair but leaning over due to home team’s efficiency. Overall, the matchup tilts heavily toward Marquette without contrarian value.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Marquette — mathematical probabilities confirm the edge on their spread and moneyline.

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