Indiana State vs Ball State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-22 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:44 PM EST

Indiana State vs Ball State on 2025-11-22

💰 Best Bet #1 [Indiana State / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 65% / Indiana State holds strong home advantage with superior efficiency ratings and recent form outpacing Ball State’s road struggles]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 151.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at high tempos, averaging over 150 combined points in recent outings with weak defensive rebounding leading to transition scoring]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Indiana State / Moneyline / -400 / 75% / Dominant favorite backed by key players’ availability and Ball State’s poor record as road underdogs]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|———————————|————————|
| Win % for Indiana State | 75.0% |
| Win % for Ball State | 25.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana State | 65.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.0% / Under: 45.0% |
| Average Total Points | 155.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.0, 25.0] |

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Indiana State 70% / Ball State 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Indiana State 60% / Ball State 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Opened at -7, moved to -8.5 with balanced action but slight sharp lean to Indiana State]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Indiana State spread due to line value against public percentage and strong home metrics]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: [Isaiah Swope / Over Points / 15.5 at -110 / 70% / Swope leads Indiana State in scoring at 18.2 PPG with high usage against Ball State’s porous perimeter defense allowing 37% from three]

Player Prop #2: [Ryan Conwell / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 65% / Conwell’s 16.1 PPG average surges at home, exploiting Ball State’s weak interior where opponents score 1.12 PPP in the paint]

Player Prop #3: [Jalen Hayes / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 60% / Hayes averages 6.8 RPG on the road but faces Indiana State’s top-100 defensive rebounding rate, limiting second-chance opportunities]

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Indiana State as the clear favorite, making following the public the optimal mathematical play given the home team’s superior adjusted efficiency and Ball State’s six-game road skid. No significant reverse line movement indicates stable value without contrarian edges. The game projects as high-scoring with both offenses efficient in transition and defenses vulnerable to tempo, favoring the over based on recent trends averaging 158 combined points.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Indiana State] — supported by convergence of metrics, line stability, and positive EV on the spread.

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