Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte Hornets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-23 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-23 05:44 PM EST

Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte Hornets on 2025-11-23

💰 Best Bet #1 Atlanta Hawks / Spread / -7 at -110 / 55% / Hawks dominate at home against injury-riddled Hornets, covering in 6 of last 8 similar matchups
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 225.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank bottom-10 in pace and efficiency, with Hornets missing top scorers leading to low-output game
💰 Best Bet #3 Atlanta Hawks / Moneyline / -300 / 72% / Superior record (10-7 vs 4-12) and key players available give clear edge

Game Times
ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Atlanta Hawks 75% / Charlotte Hornets 25%

💰 Money Distribution
Atlanta Hawks 65% / Charlotte Hornets 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6 and moved to -7 with heavy public action on Hawks, indicating sustained support for favorite

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% EV on Hawks spread due to implied probability (53%) vs estimated true cover rate (55%), bolstered by Hornets’ poor road ATS (2-9)

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Atlanta Hawks | 72% |
| Win % for Charlotte Hornets | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Atlanta Hawks | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 224.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 24.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jalen Johnson / Over Points / 20.5 at -110 / 70% / Johnson’s usage surges to 28% with favorable matchup against depleted Hornets frontcourt, averaging 22.3 in last 5 home games
Player Prop #2: Trae Young / Over Assists / 9.5 at -110 / 65% / Young’s playmaking thrives vs Hornets’ weak perimeter D (allowing 26 assists/game), hitting over in 7 of 10 vs sub-.500 teams
Player Prop #3: Miles Bridges / Over Points / 18.5 at -110 / 68% / Bridges steps up as primary scorer with LaMelo Ball out, posting 21.4 PPG in last 3 without Ball, exploiting Hawks’ average wing defense

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Hawks, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making following the favorite the optimal mathematical play amid Hornets’ extensive injuries. Contextual factors like Charlotte’s 4-12 record and key absences (LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller out) further solidify the edge without need for contrarian fade. Overall game scoring outlook points to a controlled, lower-output affair given both teams’ bottom-quartile offensive ratings and defensive rebounding struggles.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Atlanta Hawks — superior metrics and matchup advantages yield the highest win probability.

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