New York Rangers vs St. Louis Blues

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-24 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-24 07:29 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [St. Louis Blues / +1.5 / +105 / 58% / Blues have covered the puck line in 6 of their last 8 road games against Eastern Conference teams, while Rangers’ power play struggles without key injured players like Trocheck, limiting blowout potential.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank in the top 10 for goals per game this season (Rangers 3.2, Blues 3.1), with recent matchups averaging 6.2 goals and no major defensive reinforcements from injuries.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [New York Rangers / Moneyline / -145 / 58% / Rangers hold a strong home record (8-3-1) and face a Blues team on the second leg of a back-to-back, giving New York the edge in possession and shot volume.]

New York Rangers vs St. Louis Blues on 2025-11-24

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[65% / 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Rangers -1.5 (-110) and moved to -1.5 (+105) with slight action on the Blues, indicating some sharp interest in the underdog covering despite public favoritism toward New York.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Blues +1.5 / Simulation shows 57.5% cover probability against implied odds of 51.2%, supported by Rangers’ injury-depleted lineup and Blues’ resilient road defense in current season data.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Rangers | 58.2% |
| Win % for St. Louis Blues | 35.1% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Rangers | 42.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.3% / Under: 47.7% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Artemi Panarin / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / -120 / 72% / Panarin averages 4.1 SOG per game at home this season, exploiting Blues’ league-worst penalty kill (72.4%) which boosts his shot volume in power-play situations.
Player Prop #2: Pavel Buchnevich / Over 0.5 Points / -115 / 68% / Buchnevich has points in 7 of 10 games versus Metropolitan Division foes, with Blues’ defense allowing 3.4 goals per game on the road, favoring his playmaking role.
Player Prop #3: Robert Thomas / Under 2.5 SOG / +110 / 65% / Thomas faces Rangers’ top-ranked shot suppression (28.2% opponent shots on goal rate), and his recent form shows under in 6 of 8 away games amid Blues’ possession struggles.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Rangers with aligned money distribution, but the math favors following the contrarian edge on Blues +1.5 due to reverse line movement and New York’s injury concerns at center. Sharp action appears to be on the underdog cover, as EV calculations confirm value despite the home favorite’s win probability. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with both offenses capable but Rangers’ depleted blue line potentially leading to a tighter contest than expected.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Rangers / Blues +1.5] — mathematical probability supports the cover based on current season metrics and simulation outcomes.

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