New Orleans Pelicans vs Chicago Bulls

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-24 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-24 07:10 PM EST

🏀 New Orleans Pelicans vs Chicago Bulls on 2025-11-24

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Bulls / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Pelicans hampered by multiple key injuries including Ingram and Murray, allowing Bulls to exploit mismatches; recent form shows Bulls covering in similar spots]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 218.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit slower paces and solid defensive ratings this season, with injuries reducing offensive firepower for a projected low-scoring affair]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bulls / Moneyline / -140 / 55% / Bulls hold edge in win probability due to home-like road performance and Pelicans’ depleted roster]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 45% |
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bulls -2.5 | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 216 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 8] |

Game Times
ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Chicago Bulls 65% / New Orleans Pelicans 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Chicago Bulls 70% / New Orleans Pelicans 30%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line moved from Chicago Bulls -1.5 to -2.5 despite heavy public action on Bulls, indicating sharp money reinforcing the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% EV on Chicago Bulls spread; implied probability undervalues Bulls’ true win chance given Pelicans’ injury impact and Bulls’ defensive efficiency against weakened offenses.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Coby White / Over Points / 20.5 at -110 / 70% / White’s usage rate spikes to 28% with Vucevic questionable, averaging 22.3 PPG in recent games; Pelicans’ perimeter defense weakened by Jones’ absence.

Player Prop #2: Nikola Vucevic / Under Rebounds / 10.5 at -110 / 65% / Vucevic questionable but if playing, faces Pelicans’ strong interior (Missi active); Bulls’ pace drops without full lineup, limiting rebound opportunities—averages 9.8 in similar matchups.

Player Prop #3: Zion Williamson / Over Points / 25.5 at -110 / 60% / Zion’s 32% usage in injury scenarios yields 27.1 PPG lately; Bulls’ frontcourt vulnerable without Williams confirmed, allowing efficient scoring inside.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Bulls, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement toward Chicago despite betting volume. Following the public is optimal here, supported by mathematical edges from injuries and metrics showing Bulls’ superior ORtg against depleted defenses. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, with both teams’ paces and defensive rebounding rates projecting below the total amid key absences reducing explosive plays.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Chicago Bulls] — mathematical probability favors Chicago due to roster advantages and historical performance in injury-skewed matchups.

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