Northern Arizona vs Cal Poly

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-24 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-24 08:24 PM EST

Northern Arizona vs Cal Poly on 2025-11-24

💰 Best Bet #1 [Northern Arizona / Spread / +1.5 at -110 / 55% / Northern Arizona’s nine-game home win streak and defensive efficiency provide a strong edge to cover as slight underdogs against Cal Poly’s inconsistent road form.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 141.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank below average in pace and offensive rebounding, with recent games trending under due to solid perimeter defenses and limited foul trouble.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Northern Arizona / Moneyline / +120 / 52% / Value lies in Northern Arizona’s home advantage and simulation-projected upset potential, fading Cal Poly’s early-season overhyping.]

Game Times
ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Cal Poly 65% / Northern Arizona 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Cal Poly 55% / Northern Arizona 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Cal Poly -1 and held steady at -1.5 despite public leaning toward the Mustangs, suggesting some sharp resistance on the home underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Northern Arizona spread and ML; simulation and home metrics outweigh public favoritism toward Cal Poly, creating value in the underdog side without strong RLM confirmation.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Northern Arizona | 52% |
| Win % for Cal Poly | 46% |
| Tie % | 2% |
| Spread Cover % for Northern Arizona (+1.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability (141.5) | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (NAU – Cal Poly) | [-12.0, 17.0] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Cal Poly as the perceived stronger side early in the season, but divergent money distribution and simulation outcomes suggest following the underdog aligns with sharp action and mathematical edges. Northern Arizona’s home dominance counters Cal Poly’s road struggles, supporting a fade of the public. Overall game scoring projects as moderately low, with both teams’ defensive rebounding and turnover rates limiting high-output potential.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Cal Poly] — Northern Arizona offers the best mathematical probability of winning based on home trends and EV calculations.

Highlights unavailable.