NCAAB

Gonzaga vs Alabama

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-24 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-24 08:27 PM EST

Gonzaga vs Alabama on 2025-11-24

💰 Best Bet #1 [Gonzaga / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 52% / Gonzaga’s superior adjusted efficiency ratings and home-like neutral performance edge out Alabama’s recent form, with line movement supporting the favorite despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 174.5 at -110 / 51% / Both teams rank top-20 in offensive tempo and points per game this season, with defensive vulnerabilities exposed in early matchups leading to high-scoring neutral-site games.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Gonzaga / Moneyline / -175 / 62% / Gonzaga’s depth and shooting efficiency provide a clear edge over Alabama’s injury-impacted rotation, aligning with sharp money indicators.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Gonzaga | 62% |
| Win % for Alabama | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Gonzaga -4.5 | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 174 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, 16] |

Game Times

ET: 9:30 PM
CT: 8:30 PM
MT: 7:30 PM
PT: 6:30 PM
AKT: 5:30 PM
HST: 3:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Gonzaga 35% / Alabama 65%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Gonzaga 60% / Alabama 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Gonzaga -3.5 and moved to -4.5, indicating sharp action on the favorite despite heavy public betting on Alabama as the underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Gonzaga spread; public overreaction to Alabama’s recent win creates value, supported by efficiency metrics and reverse line movement confirming professional interest.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Alabama as the underdog, but divergent money distribution and line movement toward Gonzaga suggest sharp resistance, making a fade of the public optimal based on superior offensive ratings and matchup data. Both teams’ high-tempo styles point to a game exceeding the total, with Gonzaga’s rebounding edge likely controlling the pace. Overall scoring outlook favors the over, driven by top-25 offensive efficiencies and neutral-site trends.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Alabama] — Gonzaga holds the mathematical probability edge through efficiency and sharp alignment.

Highlights unavailable.