San Diego State vs Michigan

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-24 10:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-24 08:28 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Michigan / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 55% / Michigan’s superior efficiency ratings and home-field edge in neutral-site matchups give them a clear advantage over SDSU’s slower tempo, aligning with line movement favoring the Wolverines despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 149.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank in the bottom quartile for pace and effective FG% allowed, with recent games averaging under this total; injuries to key SDSU shooters further suppress scoring potential.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Michigan / Moneyline / -240 / 62% / Wolverines’ adjusted defensive efficiency outpaces SDSU by 8 points per 100 possessions, supported by 61.8% simulated win probability and sharp money inflow.]

San Diego State vs Michigan on 2025-11-24

Game Times

ET: 10:30 PM
CT: 9:30 PM
MT: 8:30 PM
PT: 7:30 PM
AKT: 6:30 PM
HST: 4:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[San Diego State 65% / Michigan 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[San Diego State 45% / Michigan 55%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Michigan -7.5 but has steamed down to -5.5 amid sharp action on the favorite, indicating professional resistance to public backing of the underdog Aztecs.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Michigan spread; implied probability undervalues Wolverines’ 61.8% win chance based on KenPom efficiencies and recent form, with RLM confirming value against public overreaction to SDSU’s upset potential.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors San Diego State as the underdog, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement point to sharp action on Michigan, creating a fade-the-public opportunity backed by superior defensive metrics. Both teams’ low-tempo styles and limited explosive scoring suggest a grind-it-out affair likely staying under the total. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with average simulated total at 159 but adjusted for matchup at 148.2 points.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on San Diego State / Follow the sharp with Michigan] — mathematical probability favors the Wolverines covering and winning outright.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Diego State | 38.2% |
| Win % for Michigan | 61.8% |
| Spread Cover % for San Diego State | 45.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 159.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18.4, 22.6] |

Highlights unavailable.