Vermont vs Rhode Island

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-25 02:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-25 03:37 PM EST

Vermont vs Rhode Island on 2025-11-25

💰 Best Bet #1 Vermont / +5.5 / -110 / 58% / Heavy money on underdog Vermont aligns with line stability, suggesting value against favored Rhode Island in a close matchup based on recent form and defensive efficiencies.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams show low-possession styles in early 2025 games, with averages under 140 total points, favoring a controlled, low-scoring affair despite public lean toward under.

💰 Best Bet #3 Rhode Island / Moneyline / -220 / 60% / Home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency ratings give Rhode Island the edge, though the line reflects strong favorite status without overvaluation.

Game Times

ET: 2:30 PM
CT: 1:30 PM
MT: 12:30 PM
PT: 11:30 AM
AKT: 10:30 AM
HST: 8:30 AM

Public Bets

Vermont 65% / Rhode Island 35%

Money Distribution

Vermont 81% / Rhode Island 19%

Market Alignment

Divergent

Line Movement

Line opened at Rhode Island -6 and moved to -5.5 with heavy money on Vermont, indicating sharp action on the underdog despite public support.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Vermont +5.5, driven by reverse line movement and money concentration suggesting professional backing, cross-verified with early season metrics showing Vermont’s resilience as underdogs.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Vermont | 40% |
| Win % for Rhode Island | 60% |
| Spread Cover % for Vermont (+5.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 144 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 20] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Aaron Deloney (Vermont) / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 65% / Deloney’s usage rate exceeds 25% in early games, averaging 16.2 points against similar defenses, with matchup favoring perimeter scoring.

Player Prop #2: Luis Peralta (Rhode Island) / Over Points / 17.5 at -110 / 62% / Peralta leads Rhode Island with 18.8 PPG in 2025, exploiting Vermont’s average guard defense (allowing 15+ to opponents), supported by high shot volume.

Player Prop #3: Shamir Bogues (Vermont) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -120 / 68% / Bogues averages 5.4 assists per game with low turnover rate, benefiting from Rhode Island’s press defense that creates transition opportunities.

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the underdog Vermont on the spread, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement toward the Catamounts, making a follow on Vermont optimal rather than fading. Rhode Island’s home efficiency edges provide a slight ML lean, but the divergent money distribution highlights value on the spread. Overall game scoring projects low due to both teams’ top-100 defensive rebounding rates and deliberate tempos, pointing to an under.

Recommended Play

Follow the public with Vermont +5.5 — the convergence of public bets, money flow, and simulation cover probability supports this as the highest EV opportunity.

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