Georgia State vs Samford

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-25 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-25 03:38 PM EST

Georgia State vs Samford on 2025-11-25

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Samford / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 55% / Samford’s superior offensive efficiency and recent form against similar defenses support covering the line, with home-court edge adding value despite close simulation margins.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 149.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank low in pace and 3-point volume this season, with defensive rebounding limiting second-chance points for a projected total below the line.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Samford / Moneyline / -225 / 58% / Samford’s adjusted efficiency ratings and win probability edge make them the clear favorite in this matchup.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Georgia State | 42% |
| Win % for Samford | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Georgia State | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 147 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, 2] |

💸 Public Bets
[30% / 70%]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Samford -5 and held steady at -5.5 with balanced action, no significant sharp movement noted.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Samford spread due to efficiency mismatch and simulation convergence outweighing public lean.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Samford as the favorite, aligning with sharp money indicators and current season metrics like Samford’s top-100 offensive rating versus Georgia State’s defensive struggles. Following the public here is optimal, as reverse line movement is absent and EV supports the favorite without contrarian signals. The game projects as moderately low-scoring, with both offenses hampered by turnover rates above 18% and defenses allowing under 70 points per game in recent neutral-site play.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Samford / No clear edge] — Samford holds the highest mathematical probability based on form and matchup data.

Highlights unavailable.