UNC Asheville vs Tennessee State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-25 06:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-25 03:51 PM EST

UNC Asheville vs Tennessee State on 2025-11-25

💰 Best Bet #1 UNC Asheville / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 65% / UNC Asheville’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 110 and home advantage provide a clear edge over Tennessee State’s defense, supporting a cover in simulations.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 154.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit slower tempos around 68-70 possessions, with recent games averaging under 150 points combined, favoring a low-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 UNC Asheville / Moneyline / -280 / 73% / Superior overall metrics and home-court dominance give UNC Asheville a strong probability of victory against an underperforming Tennessee State.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UNC Asheville | 72.50% |
| Win % for Tennessee State | 27.50% |
| Spread Cover % for UNC Asheville | 55.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.00% / Under: 52.00% |
| Average Total Points | 152.30 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.00, 25.00] |

Game Times
ET: 6:30 PM
CT: 5:30 PM
MT: 4:30 PM
PT: 3:30 PM
AKT: 2:30 PM
HST: 12:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
68% UNC Asheville / 32% Tennessee State

💰 Money Distribution
72% UNC Asheville / 28% Tennessee State

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at -5.5, moved to -6.5 with heavy public action on UNC Asheville, indicating sustained support for the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on UNC Asheville spread; implied probability undervalues their 72% win chance based on efficiency ratings and home splits.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Josh Williams / Over Points / 15.5 at -115 / 72% / Williams averages 16.2 PPG in early 2025 games with high usage (28%) against Tennessee State’s weak perimeter defense allowing 45% from three.

Player Prop #2: Quincy Anderson / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 68% / Anderson’s 6.8 RPG drops to 5.5 on the road, facing UNC Asheville’s strong interior (top-150 defensive rebounding rate).

Player Prop #3: Michael Eley / Over Assists / 4.5 at -120 / 70% / Eley dishes 5.1 APG in home games, exploiting Tennessee State’s turnover-prone press (18% TO rate).

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on UNC Asheville, as line movement confirms without reverse action, making following the favorite optimal for positive EV. Tennessee State’s defensive inefficiencies (allowing 105+ points per 100 possessions) clash with UNC Asheville’s efficient offense, but overall game scoring trends low due to controlled tempos. No major injuries impact key rotations, solidifying the model’s projections.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with UNC Asheville — mathematical probabilities and market consensus point to their dominance in this home matchup.

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