Arkansas vs Duke

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-27 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-27 07:03 PM EST

Arkansas vs Duke on 2025-11-27

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Duke / Spread / -11.5 at -110 / 55% / Duke’s superior efficiency and defensive disruption give them a strong edge to cover on the neutral site, supported by recent form and line movement favoring them.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 159.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams play at a high tempo with strong offensive ratings, leading to expectations of a combined total exceeding the line based on pace and scoring trends.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Duke / Moneyline / -650 / 69% / Duke’s talent advantage and undefeated record make them the clear favorite, with simulation projecting a solid win probability.]

💸 Public Bets
[Arkansas 30% / Duke 70%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Arkansas 45% / Duke 55%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Duke -10.5 and moved to -11.5 despite heavy public action on Duke, indicating sharp support for the favorite.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Duke spread; simulation and efficiency metrics converge with line movement to show value against implied odds.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arkansas | 31.5% |
| Win % for Duke | 68.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Duke | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.3% / Under: 47.7% |
| Average Total Points | 148.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 18.3] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Duke, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement toward the favorite despite public percentages. Following the public on Duke is optimal here, as metrics like adjusted efficiency and recent form support the favorite without contrarian signals. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with both offenses capable but defenses potentially keeping the total closer to the line than explosive.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Duke / No clear edge] — Duke holds the best mathematical probability based on talent disparity and simulation outcomes.

Highlights unavailable.