Indiana Pacers vs Washington Wizards

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-28 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 07:04 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Indiana Pacers / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 62% / Pacers hold a strong edge at home despite key injuries, with simulation showing solid cover probability backed by superior offensive rating and Wizards’ defensive struggles in recent matchups.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 238.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit slower pace and lower efficiency lately, with Pacers’ missing playmakers reducing scoring output and Wizards allowing fewer points on the road per current season metrics.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Indiana Pacers / Moneyline / -250 / 65% / Home advantage and depth give Pacers clear favoritism, aligning with win probability from advanced ratings and head-to-head trends this season.]

Indiana Pacers vs Washington Wizards on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[72% / 28%]

💰 Money Distribution
[65% / 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Pacers -6 and moved to -6.5 with balanced action, showing slight sharp support for the favorite per recent updates.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Pacers spread; implied probability undervalues home team’s efficiency and Wizards’ injury-impacted defense based on current season data.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 65.0% |
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 35.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana Pacers | 62.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 232.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 18.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Bub Carrington / Over Assists / 10.5 at -125 / 70% / Wizards’ point guard sees increased usage with injuries to key guards, averaging 11.2 assists in last 5 games without rotation overlap, facing Pacers’ depleted backcourt defense.
Player Prop #2: Pascal Siakam / Over Points / 22.5 at -110 / 68% / Siakam steps up as primary scorer with Haliburton out, hitting over in 7 of 10 recent games (avg 25.4), exploiting Wizards’ weak interior defense allowing 24+ to forwards this season.
Player Prop #3: Bilal Coulibaly / Over Rebounds / 5.5 at +105 / 65% / Increased minutes for Wizards’ wing with Kispert out, averaging 6.8 boards in similar spots, against Pacers’ rebounding vulnerabilities without Toppin and Nesmith.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans heavily toward the Pacers, aligning with sharp money indicators and current line stability, making a follow strategy optimal given the home team’s superior metrics despite injuries. The Wizards’ defensive lapses are offset by Pacers’ offensive depth, but overall game scoring trends low due to slower paces and key absences on both sides. No strong contrarian edge emerges, as EV supports the consensus favorite.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Pacers] — mathematical probability favors the home win and cover in this matchup.

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