NBA
Los Angeles Clippers vs 
Memphis Grizzlies
League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-28 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 06:01 PM EST
Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies on 2025-11-28
💰 Best Bet #1 Clippers / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 58% / Clippers hold a strong home edge with efficient offensive rating in the current 2025 season, while Grizzlies’ key absences like Ja Morant weaken their perimeter defense, supporting a cover based on recent form and simulation metrics.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 223.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for pace and true-shooting percentage this season, with injuries limiting scoring options and defensive rebounding rates favoring a lower total despite moderate public lean toward over.
💰 Best Bet #3 Clippers / Moneyline / -260 / 68% / Dominant win probability driven by home-court advantage and Grizzlies’ depleted backcourt, aligning with sharp money distribution and current season ATS trends.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Los Angeles Clippers | 68.2% |
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 31.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Los Angeles Clippers | 58.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 223.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 22.3] |
Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM
💸 Public Bets
[65% / 35%]
💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Clippers -6 and held steady at -6.5 despite moderate public action on LA, indicating sharp confidence in the favorite.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Clippers spread; simulation cover rate exceeds implied odds probability, bolstered by Grizzlies’ injury impacts and Clippers’ home efficiency metrics from the current 2025 season.]
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Desmond Bane / Over Points / 22.5 at -110 / 65% / Bane’s usage rate spikes to 32% without Morant this season, averaging 25.4 points in similar spots with Grizzlies’ offensive rating improving against Clippers’ perimeter defense.
Player Prop #2: Ivica Zubac / Over Rebounds / 10.5 at -110 / 70% / Zubac grabs 11.2 rebounds per game at home in 2025, exploiting Grizzlies’ weak interior defense (allowing 48% opponent rebound rate) amid Clarke’s absence.
Player Prop #3: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Over Blocks / 2.5 at +100 / 55% / Jackson averages 2.8 blocks versus high-pace teams like the Clippers, with his high-danger block rate at 15% this season favoring over in a matchup short on frontcourt depth.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward the Clippers but aligns with money distribution, suggesting no strong fade opportunity as sharp action supports the favorite amid Grizzlies’ injuries. Mathematical edges favor following the market consensus on the spread and moneyline, with EV confirmed by simulation and current season metrics. Overall game scoring outlook points to a controlled pace, with both defenses allowing under 110 points per 100 possessions recently, tilting toward the under.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Clippers — simulation and line stability indicate the highest probability of a home win and cover.
Highlights unavailable.