St. Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-28 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 02:57 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [St. Louis Blues / Puck Line / -1.5 at +140 / 48% / Blues show strong home form with superior xGA metrics against Senators’ leaky defense, supported by recent simulations favoring multi-goal wins.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 55% / Defensive matchups and goalie stability point to low-scoring affair, with both teams under 3 goals in 60% of recent games; flipped recommendation per historical trends.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [St. Louis Blues / Moneyline / -105 / 54% / Home-ice advantage and better Corsi% give Blues edge in even matchup, with line movement indicating sharp support.]

St. Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[55% / 45%]

💰 Money Distribution

[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Line opened at Blues -110 ML, moved to -105 with slight public action on home side; total steady at 5.5]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Blues side / Consensus from sims and sharp money supports value despite public lean]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Louis Blues | 54% |
| Win % for Ottawa Senators | 41% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Louis Blues | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.2, 3.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Pavel Buchnevich / Over 0.5 Points / Line at -120 / 65% / Buchnevich’s high usage on top line vs Senators’ weak PK yields 70% hit rate in recent home games, with strong xGF contributions.

Player Prop #2: Robert Thomas / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / Line at -115 / 62% / Thomas averages 3.2 SOG at home, exploiting Ottawa’s high-danger defense vulnerabilities per current season metrics.

Player Prop #3: Brady Tkachuk / Under 0.5 Goals / Line at -130 / 58% / Senators’ road struggles and Blues’ solid GA limit Tkachuk’s scoring, hitting under in 65% of away matchups this season.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Blues but aligns with sharp money distribution, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Both teams’ defensive metrics suggest a controlled pace with limited high-danger chances, pointing to a total under typical expectations. Overall game outlook favors moderate scoring, with Blues’ home efficiency providing the edge.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with St. Louis Blues] — Mathematical probability favors home win based on sim convergence and market support.

Highlights unavailable.