Washington vs Oregon

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:37 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Washington / +6.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation shows 55% cover rate exceeding implied odds, supported by balanced money distribution despite heavy public on Oregon and Washington’s strong home performances in recent high-scoring wins.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / 60.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams averaging over 50 points in recent games with explosive offenses (Oregon 54 PPG last 3, Washington 56 PPG), projecting 60.2 average total amid favorable conditions.
💰 Best Bet #3 Oregon / Moneyline -240 / 65% / Dominant 65% win probability from sim, backed by superior recent form, talent edge, and road favorite consensus despite injuries.

🏈 Washington vs Oregon on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Oregon 68% / Washington 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Oregon 62% / Washington 38%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Oregon -5.5 and moved to -6.5 with balanced action, showing slight sharp support for the favorite based on recent consensus from sportsbooks like DraftKings.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington | 35% |
| Win % for Oregon | 65% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington (+6.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 60.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 20] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Washington spread cover, driven by simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds and minor reverse line movement hints from early public fade.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Dante Moore / Over 240.5 Pass Yds / -115 / 68% / Oregon’s QB thrives in high-tempo offense (recent 300+ yds games), facing Washington secondary allowing 250+ pass yds per game lately; usage and matchup favor air volume.
Player Prop #2: Jonah Coleman / Over 88.5 Rush Yds / -110 / 65% / Washington’s lead back averages 95 yds recently in wins, exploiting Oregon’s injury-hit run D (3.8 ypc allowed last 3); home cooking boosts ground efficiency.
Player Prop #3: Noah Whittington / Over 4.5 Rec / -120 / 62% / Oregon RB’s receiving role consistent (5+ catches last 4), vs Washington’s LBs weak in pass coverage; high target share in pass-heavy scheme.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Oregon on the spread aligning with money distribution, but simulation and recent trends indicate value in fading slightly on Washington cover given cover probability edge and both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities leading to shootouts. Sharp hints in line hold at -6.5 despite public steam. Game projects high-scoring with combined offenses averaging 55+ PPG recently, favoring Over based on explosive play rates and tempo.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Washington +6.5 — highest EV from sim convergence, public overreaction to Oregon hype, and Washington’s home defensive resilience against run despite injuries.

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