Florida vs Providence

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-28 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 04:08 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Florida / Spread / -11.5 at -110 / 65% / Florida’s superior adjusted efficiency ratings and home-court edge in a neutral-site matchup give them a strong projection to cover against a Providence team struggling with early-season form.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 157.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams rank in the top 50 for pace and offensive rebounding percentages, with recent games trending high-scoring despite defensive vulnerabilities.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Florida / Moneyline / -650 / 75% / Simulation and KenPom projections heavily favor Florida’s win probability, supported by key players’ usage rates and Providence’s turnover issues.]

Florida vs Providence on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 03:00 PM
CT: 02:00 PM
MT: 01:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 09:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[68% Florida / 32% Providence]

💰 Money Distribution

[52% Florida / 48% Providence]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line moved from -10.5 to -11.5 amid moderate public action on Florida, indicating some sharp resistance on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4% on Florida spread; implied probability undervalues Florida’s 78% win projection from efficiency metrics and recent form.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Florida | 78.5% |
| Win % for Providence | 21.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida | 62.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.2% / Under: 44.8% |
| Average Total Points | 160.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 35.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Alex Condon / Over Points / 17.5 at -105 / 70% / Condon’s 25% usage rate and efficiency against similar defenses project him well over, with Florida’s fast pace boosting opportunities.
Player Prop #2: Boogie Fland / Over Assists / 4.5 at -110 / 68% / As primary ball-handler, Fland averages 5.2 APG in recent outings, facing a Providence backcourt prone to turnovers.
Player Prop #3: Jaylin Sellers / Under Points / 14.5 at -108 / 72% / Sellers faces Florida’s stout perimeter defense (top-30 in opponent eFG%), limiting his scoring volume in tough matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Florida but with divergent money distribution suggesting sharp play on Providence or totals, creating value on the spread. Following the math favors Florida due to superior offensive efficiency and Providence’s injury-impacted rotation. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate-to-high total, driven by both teams’ rebounding battles and transition opportunities.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Florida — projections confirm the favorite’s edge despite slight line movement resistance.

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