Hawaii vs North Dakota

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-28 11:59 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 07:13 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 North Dakota / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 55% / Divergent market shows money heavily on North Dakota while public favors Hawaii, aligning with 55% cover probability from simulations and reverse line movement.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit moderate offensive efficiency in early season games, with average simulated total of 145.2 points suggesting a slight edge to the over despite defensive rebounding strengths.
💰 Best Bet #3 North Dakota / Moneyline / -220 / 58% / North Dakota’s superior win probability of 58% provides value against the implied odds, bolstered by stronger recent form and home/road splits in current season matchups.

Hawaii vs North Dakota on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 11:59 PM
CT: 10:59 PM
MT: 9:59 PM
PT: 8:59 PM
AKT: 7:59 PM
HST: 5:59 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Hawaii | 42% |
| Win % for North Dakota | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for North Dakota (-5.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 145.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.8, 8.4] |

💸 Public Bets

[Hawaii 55% / North Dakota 45%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Hawaii 40% / North Dakota 60%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -6 and steadied at -5.5 with minimal shift despite public lean toward the underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on North Dakota spread; reverse line movement against public action combined with simulation convergence supports value on the favorite.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Hawaii as the underdog, but sharp money distribution favors North Dakota, creating a divergent market that supports fading the public. Simulations confirm North Dakota’s edge in win probability and spread coverage, driven by better adjusted efficiency ratings in early 2025 season games. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with over slightly favored due to both teams’ tempo and rebounding rates allowing for transition opportunities.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Hawaii — mathematical probability favors North Dakota based on money flow, line stability, and simulation outcomes.

Highlights unavailable.