Inter Miami vs New York City FC

League: MLS | Date: 2025-11-29 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 06:09 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Inter Miami / Win / -155 / 62% / Dominant home advantage in playoffs, Messi’s impact, simulation projects 58% win probability exceeding implied odds
💰 Best Bet #2 Draw / Tie / +290 / 28% / Playoff tension and NYCFC’s defensive resilience suggest even matchup potential aligning with 26% sim draw rate
💰 Best Bet #3 New York City FC / Win / +450 / 18% / Underdog value if Miami falters, backed by 16% sim probability despite public fade

Inter Miami vs New York City FC on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Inter Miami 72% / New York City FC 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Inter Miami 58% / New York City FC 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Inter Miami ML steady at -155 from open -145; total 2.5 goals moved slightly Under despite public on home win (per previews from Betting News and SportsGambler)

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Inter Miami | 58% |
| Win % for New York City FC | 16% |
| Draw % | 26% |
| Spread Cover % for Inter Miami (-1) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 2.5: 48% / Under 2.5: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 2.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, +2.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Lionel Messi / Over 1.5 Shots on Target / 1.5 at -120 / 72% / Miami’s high xG reliance (2.1/game home), Messi averages 2.4 SOT in playoffs, NYC concedes 4.8 SOT/away
Player Prop #2: Luis Suarez / Anytime Goalscorer / Yes at +150 / 68% / 0.8 xG/game recently, exploits NYC’s leg injuries weakening backline (Parks, Perea out)
Player Prop #3: Maxi Moralez / Under 0.5 Assists / 0.5 at -140 / 75% / Low creativity vs Miami press (pass acc 78%), sim projects limited NYC chances

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Inter Miami but money split signals sharp interest in NYCFC or draw amid injuries (Miami’s Ruiz/Sailor out, NYC multiple legs). Fade public slightly on ML as sim and xG favor home without overreaction; follow Under 2.5 given avg 2.7 goals and playoff defensive trends.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on New York City FC — Inter Miami’s home edge and sim convergence offer best EV.

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