Marshall vs Georgia Southern

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 01:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:17 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Marshall / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Marshall’s home advantage and superior recent defensive trends against GSU’s struggling run game support covering the spread, aligned with line stability.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 59.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ recent games show low-scoring outputs (Marshall avg 22 PPG last 3, GSU 25 PPG allowed), with defensive havoc rates favoring a sub-60 total.

💰 Best Bet #3 Marshall / Moneyline / -225 / 62% / Home-field edge and 5-1 ATS as favorite this season give Marshall strong win probability.

🏈 Matchup: Marshall vs Georgia Southern on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 1:30 PM
CT: 12:30 PM
MT: 11:30 AM
PT: 10:30 AM
AKT: 9:30 AM
HST: 7:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Marshall 68% / Georgia Southern 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Marshall 62% / Georgia Southern 38%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Marshall -6, moved to -5.5 despite heavy public action on home team, hinting at sharp money on GSU side but stable total at 59.5-60.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Marshall | 62% |
| Win % for Georgia Southern | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Marshall (-5.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 57.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +8] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Marshall -5.5 (implied prob 52% vs model 56%); under has +2.1% EV given defensive metrics and recent unders (7/10 combined).

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Tony Mathis Jr / Over Rushing Yards / 78.5 at -115 / 72% / Mathis averages 92 yds last 5, GSU ranks 135th vs rush (198 yds allowed/gm); matchup favors 100+ yds.
Player Prop #2: Turner Helton / Under Passing Yards / 212.5 at -110 / 68% / Helton 185 yds avg vs top-60 pass D, Marshall 117th pass def but high pressure rate limits deep shots.
Player Prop #3: Zion Turner / Over Passing TDs / 1.5 at +120 / 65% / Turner 2+ TD in 4/6 home games, GSU secondary allows 2.8 pass TD/gm (bottom-20).

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans Marshall but money slightly softer, with minor RLM to -5.5 signaling value on home spread; math supports following public here as EV positive without strong fade signals. Game projects low-scoring with Marshall def (havoc rate top-80) clamping GSU offense, favoring under. No major injuries reported, both at 5-6 chasing bowl.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Marshall — model convergence on home win/cover at 62%/56%.

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