Southeast Missouri State vs Lipscomb

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-29 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 10:27 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Lipscomb / -5.5 / -110 / 57% / Lipscomb shows superior adjusted offensive efficiency (108.2 per KenPom) vs SEMO’s weak defense (104.5 allowed), with recent road form supporting cover despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 144.5 / -110 / 54% / Both teams rank bottom-150 in tempo (68.2 possessions/game combined avg), low eFG% matchups, and injuries thinning scoring options limit high totals.

💰 Best Bet #3 Lipscomb / Moneyline / -225 / 59% / Strong win probability from sims, backed by 6-2 ATS recent away games in current season.

Southeast Missouri State vs Lipscomb on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Southeast Missouri State 38% / Lipscomb 62%

💰 Money Distribution
Southeast Missouri State 28% / Lipscomb 72%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Lipscomb -4.5, moved to -5.5 on sharp money despite public on favorite (per Action Network data); stable since yesterday.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Lipscomb spread: Implied prob 52.4% vs modeled 57%, supported by RLM and efficiency edges.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Southeast Missouri State | 41.3% |
| Win % for Lipscomb | 58.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Southeast Missouri State (+5.5) | 48.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46.1% / Under: 53.9% |
| Average Total Points | 141.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 4.2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align heavily on Lipscomb, matching sharp action via line movement from -4.5 to -5.5, confirming follow-public optimal here with positive EV. Contextual factors like SEMO’s recent 1-4 skid and Lipscomb’s top-200 ORtg support the favorite. Game projects low-scoring with combined defensive rebounding edges and sub-70 tempo.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Lipscomb — Highest mathematical probability from market consensus, sims, and current season metrics.

Highlights unavailable.