Arizona vs Norfolk State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-29 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 10:34 AM EST

Arizona vs Norfolk State on 2025-11-29

💰 Best Bet #1 Arizona / Spread / -24.5 at -110 / 78% / Arizona’s dominant 6-0 start with top-ranked adjusted efficiency crushes Norfolk State’s weaker defense, supported by simulation cover rate and home dominance.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams play moderate tempo but Arizona’s elite offense (118 adj O) pushes scoring above line against Norfolk’s porous D (112 adj D), recent trends favor high totals.

💰 Best Bet #3 Arizona / Moneyline / -3500 / 93% / Overwhelming edge in win probability from metrics, form, and rankings as #2 vs mid-major.

Game Times
ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Arizona 85% / Norfolk State 15%

💰 Money Distribution
Arizona 78% / Norfolk State 22%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Arizona -26.5, moved to -24.5 despite heavy public action, subtle sharp support on favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Arizona spread from sim convergence, RLM confirmation, and efficiency mismatch.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arizona | 93.0% |
| Win % for Norfolk State | 7.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Arizona | 78.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 62% / Under: 38% |
| Average Total Points | 155.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [12.5, 42.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Arizona aligns with sharp money and sim results, making follow optimal over fade. No significant RLM against favorite. Game projects high-scoring with Arizona’s offense overwhelming Norfolk State’s defense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Arizona — math confirms 93% win prob and strong cover value.

Highlights unavailable.