Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-30 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 06:16 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Minnesota Timberwolves / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Spurs hampered by key absences (Wembanyama out with calf strain, Castle and McLaughlin sidelined), sim shows strong cover rate with home edge and line movement from -4 supporting value.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 233.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation average of 221.3 points falls short of line; Spurs defense ranks top-5 in paint points and rebounds allowed recently, muting Wolves offense amid slower pace.

💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Timberwolves / Moneyline / -165 / 62% / 62% win probability in sim, bolstered by healthy roster vs Spurs’ injury woes and divergent money (52% on Wolves despite 68% public tickets).

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 62% |
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 221.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, 15.4] |

🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
68% Wolves / 32% Spurs

💰 Money Distribution
52% Wolves / 48% Spurs

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Wolves -4, moved to -3.5 amid sharp action on Spurs despite public favoritism toward home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Wolves spread — sim convergence with RLM and Spurs injuries (Wembanyama, Castle out) create value against inflated public line.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Wolves but money slightly split with movement toward Spurs, indicating sharp divergence; however, sim and injury context (Spurs missing Wembanyama, Castle) align with following home side for spread value rather than full fade. Game projects low-scoring with under favored on defensive metrics and sim average well below total line. Overall, Wolves hold edge without forcing contrarian play.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Minnesota Timberwolves — sim win/cover probabilities and Spurs absences provide mathematical backing despite public lean.

Highlights unavailable.