Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-30 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 06:17 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Memphis Grizzlies / +1.5 / -110 / 54%
Grizzlies show edge in simulations with Kings struggling at 5-15; injuries like Sabonis out weaken home side.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 219.5 / -110 / 52%
Both teams’ recent trends and defensive metrics project below average total of 218.4 points amid key absences.

💰 Best Bet #3 Memphis Grizzlies / Moneyline / -115 / 52%
Slight simulation favoritism for Grizzlies at 51.8% win probability, supported by reverse line movement.

🏀 Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Sacramento Kings 58% / Memphis Grizzlies 42%

💰 Money Distribution
Sacramento Kings 42% / Memphis Grizzlies 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Kings -2.5, moved to -1.5 amid sharp action on Grizzlies despite public lean to home team.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Sacramento Kings | 48.2% |
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 51.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Sacramento Kings (-1.5) | 46.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 218.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.3, 11.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Grizzlies spread; reverse line movement against public with injuries confirming value

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Kings as home favorite, but money and line movement favor Grizzlies, signaling sharp action amid Kings’ poor 5-15 record and Sabonis out. Grizzlies perform well without Morant, covering 7-0 ATS in similar spots. Game projects low-scoring with both defenses holding firm and average total under key line.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Grizzlies — mathematical probability favors away side with positive EV on spread and ML.

Highlights unavailable.