NCAAB
Charleston vs 
Belmont
League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-30 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 11:06 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Charleston / +4.5 / -110 / 58% / Simulation shows 55% cover probability exceeding implied odds, reinforced by reverse line movement from -5.5 toward dog amid 57% public on favorite.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 152.5 / -110 / 54% / Average simulated total of 151.2 falls below line, supported by Belmont’s road regression potential and Charleston’s home defensive efficiency.
💰 Best Bet #3 Belmont / Moneyline / -200 / 55% / Edges 52% win probability in simulations despite public overreaction, with superior adjusted efficiency metrics.
🏀 Matchup: Belmont Bruins @ College of Charleston Cougars on 2025-11-30
Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM
💸 Public Bets
Belmont 57% / Charleston 43%
💰 Money Distribution
Belmont 66% / Charleston 34%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Opened around -5.5, moved to -4.5 despite heavy public action on Belmont, indicating sharp resistance on the dog.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Charleston +4.5; simulation cover rate (55%) surpasses 52.4% break-even at -110 odds, validated by RLM and contextual road fade for Belmont.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Charleston | 48.0% |
| Win % for Belmont | 52.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Charleston (+4.5) | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability (152.5) | Over: 49.0% / Under: 51.0% |
| Average Total Points | 151.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Char – Bel) | [-11.8, 12.4] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Belmont on spread (57%) and moneyline (83%), aligning with money distribution (66% on favorite), but reverse line movement toward Charleston signals sharp action on the home dog. Simulations confirm value in the +4.5 cover at 55%, with no major injuries reported to alter dynamics. Overall scoring outlook leans under, as average totals trail the 152.5 line amid Belmont’s three-point regression risk on the road.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Charleston +4.5 — highest EV from sim convergence, RLM, and public disparity.
Highlights unavailable.