Notre Dame vs Missouri

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-02 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 11:02 AM EST

Notre Dame vs Missouri on 2025-12-02

💰 Best Bet #1 Missouri / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 56% / Missouri shows edge in sim cover rates and exploits Notre Dame’s recent losses to quality foes, with line value against road-challenged Tigers per current market.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 144.5 at -110 / 52% / Simulation average of 142.8 points aligns with under probability, factoring Missouri’s reliance on transition vulnerable on true road debut vs Notre Dame defense.

💰 Best Bet #3 Missouri / Moneyline / -118 / 52% / True win probability from 10k sim exceeds implied odds, supported by superior team quality despite softer schedule.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Notre Dame | 45.2% |
| Win % for Missouri | 51.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Missouri (-2.5) | 55.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Notre Dame (+2.5) | 44.9% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 142.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 16.7] |

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Notre Dame 45% / Missouri 55%

💰 Money Distribution
Notre Dame 40% / Missouri 60%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Missouri -3 to -1.5 amid sharp action on home dog per recent posts on X and betting trackers.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Missouri spread; sim probabilities exceed market-implied odds, with RLM supporting pro money on underdog side despite public lean.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans slightly Missouri but money divergence and sharp picks on Notre Dame +1.5 indicate pro resistance, though sim metrics favor Missouri’s quality edge. Fade public lightly where EV confirms on spread/ML. Game projects low-scoring with under favored on pace and defensive matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Missouri — sim and quality metrics provide highest probability despite sentiment split.

Highlights unavailable.