Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-01 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-01 07:04 PM EST

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets on 2025-12-01

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Denver Nuggets / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation shows 58% cover rate amid Mavs injuries and home dominance, supported by line movement toward Nuggets.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 229.5 at -110 / 54% / Average simulated total of 229.2 with 54% over probability, driven by both teams’ pace and offensive ratings despite some absences.

💰 Best Bet #3 Denver Nuggets / Moneyline / -280 / 65% / 65% win probability from Monte Carlo, enhanced by probable Jokic and Mavericks’ key outs like Kyrie Irving.

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Denver Nuggets 72% / Dallas Mavericks 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Denver Nuggets 68% / Dallas Mavericks 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Spread opened around -10, moved to -11.5 amid sharp action on Nuggets despite public favoritism; total steady at 229.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Nuggets spread; convergence of sim probs, RLM toward home team, and Mavs injuries create value against implied odds.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Denver Nuggets | 65% |
| Win % for Dallas Mavericks | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Nuggets (-5.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Points | 229.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, +12.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Nuggets, aligning with money distribution and sharp action indicated by line movement to -11.5. This consensus is reinforced by simulation outcomes and Dallas’ injury concerns including Kyrie Irving out and others questionable, creating value on the home side. Overall game outlook projects moderate scoring around 229 points, with a slight lean over based on pace and efficiency metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Denver Nuggets — strongest mathematical probability backed by aligned market signals and superior projected performance.

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