Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-01 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-01 07:06 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Houston Rockets / Spread / -11.5 at -112 / 58% / Rockets dominate with superior net rating and key Jazz injuries like Kessler out; sim shows 58% cover rate amid RLM favoring Houston.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 228.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams middling pace, Rockets elite defense limits Jazz scoring; avg sim total 227.4 below line, recent trends support low output.

💰 Best Bet #3 Houston Rockets / Moneyline / -650 / 75% / Overwhelming sim win probability backed by Houston’s form, Utah’s poor home splits against top teams.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets on 2025-12-01

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Utah Jazz 59% / Houston Rockets 41%

💰 Money Distribution
Utah Jazz 38% / Houston Rockets 62%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Houston -10.5, moved to -11.5/-12 despite 59% public on Jazz; RLM signals sharp money on Rockets.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.8% on Houston spread; implied prob 53% vs sim 58% cover rate, backed by net rating gap and injury edges.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Utah Jazz | 23.2% |
| Win % for Houston Rockets | 74.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Utah Jazz +11.5 | 42.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 227.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (HOU – UTA) | [-6.2, 29.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Amen Thompson / Over 16.5 PTS / -118 / 68% / Increased usage with VanVleet out, averages 18+ vs weak Jazz defense; hit in 7/10 recent.

Player Prop #2: Lauri Markkanen / Over 25.5 PTS / -107 / 62% / Rockets vulnerable to stretch-4s, Markkanen 27+ PPG last 5 home; favorable matchup data.

Player Prop #3: Keyonte George / Over 5.5 AST / -110 / 65% / If questionable plays (likely), leads Jazz assists; Rockets allow 6+ to PGs, recent 7/10 overs.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Jazz at 59% but money 62% on Rockets with RLM from -10.5 to -11.5 indicating sharp action on Houston; math and sim align with fading public given injury edges (Kessler, Niang out for Utah; Eason out but depth favors Rockets). Game projects low-scoring with Houston’s top-5 defense stifling Utah’s inefficient offense (bottom-10 ORtg). Follow sharp consensus for value.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Utah Jazz — Rockets hold superior probability across metrics.

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