Ohio State vs Indiana

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-12-06 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:12 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Ohio State / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Ohio State’s superior SP+ rating and explosive play rate give them a strong edge to cover, backed by recent dominance and home-field equivalent in neutral site.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 47.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-20 in yards allowed per play, with Indiana’s havoc rate limiting big plays, suggesting a controlled, lower-scoring affair despite average projections.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Ohio State / Moneyline / -200 / 72% / Buckeyes’ efficiency metrics and undefeated record against the spread in key games outweigh Indiana’s upset potential.]

🏈 Matchup: Ohio State vs Indiana on 2025-12-06

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

68% Ohio State / 32% Indiana

💰 Money Distribution

52% Ohio State / 48% Indiana

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Ohio State -5.5, moved to -4.5 despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating potential sharp money on Indiana.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Ohio State spread; implied odds undervalue Buckeyes’ efficiency metrics against Indiana’s defense, creating value despite RLM.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ohio State | 72.0% |
| Win % for Indiana | 25.0% (includes 3% ties/pushes) |
| Spread Cover % for Ohio State | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 51.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.2, 24.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Ohio State, but divergent money distribution hints at sharp interest in Indiana, though mathematical edges align more with the Buckeyes due to superior offensive efficiency and defensive metrics. Following the public on Ohio State offers positive EV without forcing a fade, as RLM does not override the model’s projections. Overall game scoring leans under, with both teams excelling in turnover margin and red-zone defense to limit explosive outputs.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Ohio State — Buckeyes hold the highest probability of winning based on convergence of metrics and simulation outcomes.

Highlights unavailable.