NCAAB
Duke vs 
Florida
League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-02 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 10:26 AM EST
🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 Duke / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 58% / Duke’s home dominance and superior efficiency ratings align with 56% sim cover rate, supported by recent form and Florida’s road struggles.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 156.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams show defensive strengths in current season metrics, with average total of 156.2 and 52% under probability from sim.
💰 Best Bet #3 Duke / Moneyline / -325 / 75% / 74% win probability in sim, backed by home-court edge at Cameron Indoor and Florida’s travel fatigue.
Duke vs Florida on 2025-12-02
Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM
💸 Public Bets
Duke 68% / Florida 32%
💰 Money Distribution
Duke 72% / Florida 28%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable around Duke -9.5, with minimal shift despite public lean toward home favorite; opened near -9 per Vegas trackers.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on Duke spread, driven by sim cover probability exceeding implied odds and contextual home advantage without contradicting sharp signals.
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Duke | 74% |
| Win % for Florida | 26% |
| Spread Cover % for Duke (-9.5) | 56% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida (+9.5) | 44% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 156.5: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 156.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [Duke -15, Duke +3] |
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Duke, aligning with money distribution and sharp indicators like stable lines, confirming mathematical value on the home side rather than a fade opportunity. Florida’s recent travel and shooting inefficiencies versus Duke’s elite perimeter defense suggest a controlled, lower-scoring affair. Overall game outlook leans under based on defensive rebounding rates and tempo mismatches from current season data.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Duke — sim and market convergence point to highest probability on home win and cover.
Highlights unavailable.