Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-07 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 08:40 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Seattle Seahawks / Spread / -7 at -110 / 65% / Seahawks’ strong road form and Falcons’ injury issues create value on the spread despite public lean]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams’ defenses limit big plays, recent unders in similar matchups favor low total]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Seattle Seahawks / Moneyline / -300 / 70% / Dominant simulation win probability and sharp money support Seahawks outright]

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks on 2025-12-07

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[39% / 61%]

💰 Money Distribution
[36% / 64%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Seahawks -7 and held steady, with slight steam toward Falcons +7 despite heavy public action on Seattle.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on Seahawks spread; reverse line movement against public supports sharp action, combined with Falcons’ recent losses and injuries.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Atlanta Falcons | 7.2% |
| Win % for Seattle Seahawks | 91.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Atlanta Falcons +8.5 | 40.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47.1% / Under: 52.9% |
| Average Total Points | 43.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Sea – Fal) | [-3.2, 25.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Bijan Robinson / Over Rushing Yards / 65.5 at -110 / 75% / Falcons’ run-heavy scheme against Seahawks’ average rush defense, recent usage averages 18 carries per game.
Player Prop #2: Kenneth Walker III / Over Rushing Yards / 80.5 at -110 / 70% / Walker’s explosive pace exploits Falcons’ weak run stop, allowing 4.8 yards per carry lately.
Player Prop #3: Kirk Cousins / Under Passing Yards / 220.5 at -110 / 60% / Seahawks’ secondary pressures QBs effectively, Cousins under this line in 4 of last 6 road games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment and money distribution both heavily favor the Seahawks, aligning with sharp indicators and line stability, making a follow strategy optimal over fading. The Falcons’ recent defensive struggles and key absences like potential limitations on receivers tilt the matchup toward Seattle’s control. Overall scoring outlook points to a grind-it-out affair, with strong defenses on both sides capping the total below the line based on current season averages of 21.5 points allowed per game.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Seattle Seahawks] — simulation and market consensus confirm high win probability.

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