New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-07 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 08:42 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Jets / Spread / +2.5 at -110 / 58% / Jets show strong home underdog cover rate (5-1 ATS in last six as dogs), with simulation indicating 58% cover probability amid Dolphins’ road struggles and key absences like Tyreek Hill.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 41.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in points allowed recently, with Jets games averaging 38.2 points and Dolphins at 40.1; injuries to offensive weapons and cold weather favor a lower-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 Dolphins / Moneyline / -135 / 55% / Miami holds edge in win probability from simulation (55%), backed by superior EPA metrics and Tua Tagovailoa’s efficiency against Jets’ secondary.

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins on 2025-12-07

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Dolphins 72% / Jets 28%

💰 Money Distribution

Dolphins 58% / Jets 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Dolphins -3, moved to -2.5 despite heavy public action on Miami, signaling sharp money on Jets side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Jets spread; reverse line movement against 72% public supports contrarian value, with simulation cover rate exceeding implied odds probability.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Jets | 45% |
| Win % for Miami Dolphins | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Jets (+2.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 42.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6.2, +8.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Breece Hall / Over Rushing Yards / 72.5 / -115 / 68% / Hall averages 85.3 yards per game in 2025, exploiting Dolphins’ 25th-ranked run defense (4.8 YPC allowed); usage spikes at home with no injury concerns.
Player Prop #2: Tua Tagovailoa / Under Passing Yards / 245.5 / -110 / 62% / Tua held under 240 in 4 of last 6 road starts, facing Jets’ top-5 pass defense (Sauce Gardner limiting WRs to 4.2 YPC); cold weather and Tyreek Hill out reduce big-play potential.
Player Prop #3: Jaylen Waddle / Over Receiving Yards / 58.5 / -120 / 65% / Waddle sees 8.2 targets per game without Hill, averaging 72 yards; Jets secondary vulnerable to slot receivers (allowing 65+ in 60% of matchups).

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors Dolphins (72%), but money distribution leans Jets (42%), creating divergence that aligns with reverse line movement and sharp action indicators. Following contrarian logic is optimal here, as simulation and metrics support Jets covering despite Miami’s slight win edge. Overall game scoring outlook points low, with combined defenses allowing under 42 points in 70% of recent outings amid injuries and weather factors.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Dolphins — mathematical probability favors Jets spread value in this primetime underdog spot.

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