Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-07 04:05 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 08:46 AM EST

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos on 2025-12-07

💰 Best Bet #1 [Denver Broncos / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 60% / Broncos’ dominant 10-2 record and strong defense against a struggling 2-10 Raiders squad support covering the spread, with recent wins by multiple scores.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 41.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams feature top-10 defenses allowing under 20 points per game recently, combined with Raiders’ offensive woes pointing to a low-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Denver Broncos / Moneyline / -320 / 75% / Denver’s superior form, including a 6-game win streak, makes them heavy favorites against a Raiders team on a long losing skid.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Las Vegas Raiders | 20% |
| Win % for Denver Broncos | 78% |
| Spread Cover % for Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Broncos (-7.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 41.5: 48% / Under 41.5: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 40.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Broncos Margin | [-10, 20] |

Game Times
ET: 04:05 PM
CT: 03:05 PM
MT: 02:05 PM
PT: 01:05 PM
AKT: 12:05 PM
HST: 10:05 AM

💸 Public Bets
[25% / 75%]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% / 60%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Broncos -6.5 and moved to -7.5 with heavy action on Denver despite public favoritism, indicating sharp support for the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on Broncos spread; simulation and metrics show value against implied odds, backed by Denver’s EPA edge and Raiders’ turnover issues.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Bo Nix / Over Passing Yards / 240.5 / -115 / 70% / Nix averages 265 yards in recent starts with high efficiency against weak secondaries; Raiders allow 250+ to QBs in losses, supporting over based on Denver’s pass-heavy approach.

Player Prop #2: Courtland Sutton / Over Receiving Yards / 65.5 / -110 / 65% / Sutton’s 75-yard average in wins aligns with Broncos’ usage; Raiders’ secondary ranks bottom-5 in yards allowed to WR1, favoring over via target volume and matchup.

Player Prop #3: Brock Bowers / Under Receiving Yards / 55.5 / -105 / 68% / Bowers held under 50 in three of last five; Broncos’ tight coverage limits TEs to 40 yards per game, with defensive metrics projecting low output in this rivalry.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Broncos, aligning with sharp money and line movement toward Denver, making a follow-public approach optimal given the 78% simulated win probability and strong contextual support from injuries and form. The Raiders’ defensive injuries exacerbate Denver’s advantages, while both sides’ low red-zone efficiency suggests a controlled, lower-scoring game under the total. Overall, the matchup tilts decisively toward the Broncos covering and winning outright.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Broncos] — mathematical probabilities and market consensus confirm the highest edge on Denver’s side.

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