Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-07 04:25 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 08:47 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Green Bay Packers / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Packers hold a strong home edge at Lambeau with superior EPA per play (0.12) against Bears’ defense, supported by recent form and simulation cover rate.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 45.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams average under 22 points allowed recently, with cold weather and defensive matchups favoring a lower-scoring affair per yards per play trends.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Green Bay Packers / Moneyline / -220 / 62% / Packers’ win probability aligns with their 61% simulation edge, bolstered by home-field advantage and Bears’ road struggles.]

🏈 Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears on 2025-12-07

Game Times

ET: 4:25 PM
CT: 3:25 PM
MT: 2:25 PM
PT: 1:25 PM
AKT: 12:25 PM
HST: 10:25 AM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Green Bay Packers | 61% |
| Win % for Chicago Bears | 39% |
| Spread Cover % for Green Bay Packers | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 45.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [Packers -12, +18] |

💸 Public Bets

[Packers 68% / Bears 32%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Packers 62% / Bears 38%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Packers -4.5 and moved to -5.5 amid heavy public action on Green Bay, indicating steady professional support without significant reverse movement.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Packers spread / Edge derived from simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds, with Packers’ superior red-zone efficiency (65%) versus Bears’ 52% creating value despite public lean.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jordan Love / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -115 / 72% / Love averages 268 yards per game in 2025 with high CPOE (4.2%) against zone defenses like Chicago’s, boosted by home splits and no major OL injuries.
Player Prop #2: DJ Moore / Over Receiving Yards / 72.5 / -110 / 68% / Moore’s 75.3 yards per game target pace aligns with Bears’ usage (28%), facing Packers’ secondary vulnerable to slot receivers (allowing 65 yards avg.).
Player Prop #3: Josh Jacobs / Over Rushing Yards / 68.5 / -112 / 70% / Jacobs hits 75+ in 7 of 10 home games, exploiting Bears’ run D (4.8 ypc allowed) with Packers’ O-line integrity confirmed via latest reports.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Packers, aligning with sharp money and simulation metrics, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Both defenses rank top-10 in success rate allowed, pointing to a controlled, under-paced game unlikely to exceed the total. Bears’ key absences like Rome Odunze weaken their passing attack, further tilting value toward Green Bay’s home dominance.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Packers] — simulation and market consensus confirm the highest probability of success on the favorite.

Highlights unavailable.