Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-07 04:25 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 08:48 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Los Angeles Rams / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 64% / Rams favored due to Cardinals’ key injuries including QB Kyler Murray and top WRs, giving LA a clear edge in simulation cover probability and recent form where they’ve won 7 of last 10.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 48.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-15 in points allowed per game this season; Cardinals’ depleted offense limits scoring potential, aligning with sim’s 44.2 average total and under trends in 6 of Rams’ last 8 road games.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Los Angeles Rams / Moneyline / -320 / 72% / Strong win probability from Monte Carlo sim, backed by 9-3 record vs. Cardinals’ 3-9 slump, with no major Rams injuries impacting starters.]

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams on 2025-12-07

Game Times
ET: 4:25 PM
CT: 3:25 PM
MT: 2:25 PM
PT: 1:25 PM
AKT: 12:25 PM
HST: 10:25 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Arizona Cardinals 30% / Los Angeles Rams 70%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Arizona Cardinals 20% / Los Angeles Rams 80%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Rams -8.5 and moved to -7.5, showing slight resistance despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp money on the Cardinals side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on Rams spread and under] — Positive EV derived from simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds, reinforced by injury impacts and defensive metrics, with RLM supporting value against public overbetting.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arizona Cardinals | 28% |
| Win % for Los Angeles Rams | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) | 36% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 44.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | Rams [-3.2, +19.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Kyren Williams / Over Rushing Yards / 72.5 at -115 / 68% / Williams averages 85 yards per game in 2025 with high usage (22 touches avg.); Cardinals’ run defense allows 4.8 yards per carry to RBs, supporting over in sims where he clears in 7 of 10 matchups.

Player Prop #2: Trey McBride / Over Receptions / 5.5 at -120 / 62% / As Cardinals’ primary target with WRs out, McBride has 6+ catches in 8 of 11 games; Rams’ secondary vulnerable to TEs (allowing 6.2 rec. per game), with offensive data showing 65% target share boost in Murray’s absence.

Player Prop #3: Matthew Stafford / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 at -110 / 65% / Stafford tops 250 yards in 9 of 12 starts this season at 68% completion; Cardinals’ secondary depleted, allowing 265 pass yards per game to QBs, per defensive metrics and head-to-head trends.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Rams, aligning with sharp money distribution and line stability, making a follow-the-public approach optimal given the Cardinals’ injury woes that weaken their offense without Murray or top receivers. Defensive strengths on both sides, including Rams’ top-10 red-zone stop rate and Cardinals’ 4th-down efficiency, point to a controlled, lower-scoring affair under 48.5. No strong contrarian fade justified here, as EV supports the favorite across key markets.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Los Angeles Rams] — Mathematical probability favors the Rams’ win and cover based on sim outcomes, injury edges, and market consensus.

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