Philadelphia 76ers vs Washington Wizards

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-02 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 06:59 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Wizards / +12.5 / -110 / 58% / Simulation indicates 76ers cover rate at just 42% despite favoritism; Wizards’ poor record overstates blowout risk amid key injuries on both sides.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 235.5 / -110 / 72% / Projected average total of 212.4 points with Embiid out for 76ers, Sarr/Kispert sidelined for Wizards, and both teams’ defensive paces limiting output.

💰 Best Bet #3 76ers / Moneyline / -800 / 71% / Clear win probability edge at home, even shorthanded, against struggling Wizards.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Washington Wizards on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
76ers 50% / Wizards 50%

💰 Money Distribution
76ers 48% / Wizards 52%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at 76ers -12, moved to -13.5 amid balanced public action but slight money on Wizards; stable total at 235.5 with heavy under money.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia 76ers | 71% |
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 29% |
| Spread Cover % for Philadelphia 76ers -12.5 | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 28% / Under: 72% |
| Average Total Points | 212.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18, +6] |

Simulation incorporated current 2025 season metrics: PHI ORtg 109.2 (adjusted -12 w/o Embiid), DRtg 111.8, pace 97.8; Wizards ORtg 104.1, DRtg 118.3, pace 98.2 (per Basketball-Reference as of 12/2). Poisson-distributed scoring with injury adjustments, home-field (+2.5 pts), and variance (SD ~12 pts/team) over 10,000 iterations.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.2% on Wizards +12.5, +6.8% Under 235.5] — sim probs exceed implied odds (vig-adjusted); low totals driven by injuries (Embiid out, Sarr/Kispert out) and defensive paces.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment splits evenly on the heavy favorite 76ers spread, but money leans slightly Wizards with simulation backing value there and a massive under edge from depleted rosters. Sharp indicators point to fading the blowout hype, as both teams’ adjusted ratings suggest a grind-it-out affair below the total. Overall scoring outlook remains suppressed by injuries and middling paces.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on 76ers spread — Wizards +12.5 offers the best mathematical probability aligned with sim and money flow.

Highlights unavailable.