James Madison vs Troy

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-12-05 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 10:32 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 James Madison / -22.5 / -110 / 65% / JMU’s dominant sim win probability and recent form overpower Troy’s struggles against quality foes, with spread cover aligning on strong offensive efficiency and Troy’s defensive vulnerabilities.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 47.5 / -110 / 62% / Both teams’ recent games trend below key totals amid defensive improvements and slower tempos, supported by sim’s average total of 51.2 but tight distribution favoring under given line.
💰 Best Bet #3 James Madison / Moneyline / -2500 / 92% / Overwhelming sim edge (89% win probability) and superior metrics make JMU the clear choice despite heavy juice.

🏈 James Madison vs Troy on 2025-12-05

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
James Madison 85% / Troy 15%

💰 Money Distribution
James Madison 78% / Troy 22%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened JMU -21, moved to -22.5 on JMU side despite public steam, indicating sharp support for favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on JMU spread / RLM and sim convergence outweigh public fade potential in high-volume championship market.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for James Madison | 89.2% |
| Win % for Troy | 9.8% |
| Spread Cover % for James Madison | 62.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 51.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [3.1, 41.7] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Matthew Sluka / Over 245.5 Passing Yards / -115 / 72% / JMU QB’s 280+ avg in recent wins vs. Troy’s secondary allowing 250+ pass yds/game, high usage in championship spot.

Player Prop #2: Trashon Dye / Over 85.5 Rushing Yards / -110 / 68% / Leads JMU backfield with 95 yds avg last 3, Troy yields 120 rush yds/game to RBs amid weak front seven.

Player Prop #3: Tucker Kilcrease / Under 180.5 Passing Yards / -112 / 70% / Troy QB limited to 150 avg vs. top defenses like Clemson/Memphis, JMU havoc rate disrupts passing attacks effectively.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on JMU aligns with sharp money via line movement toward the favorite, making follow optimal amid sim-backed dominance. Troy’s losses to Power 4/strong G5 foes highlight JMU mismatch. Game projects moderate scoring with defenses clamping explosive plays, favoring under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with James Madison — sim, metrics, and market consensus confirm highest probability on heavy favorite in title tilt.

Highlights unavailable.