Pittsburgh vs Texas A&M

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-02 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 10:01 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Pittsburgh / +1.5 / -110 / 55% / Monte Carlo sim projects 54% cover rate for Pitt, supported by reverse line movement from -2.5 open amid public on favorite
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 52% / Combined efficiency ratings suggest average total of 143.2, early season pace favors push toward higher scoring
💰 Best Bet #3 Texas A&M / Moneyline / -120 / 58% / Slight home edge and superior adj offense (110.2 vs Pitt D 102.0) gives narrow win probability advantage

Pittsburgh vs Texas A&M on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Texas A&M 65% / Pittsburgh 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Texas A&M 58% / Pittsburgh 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Texas A&M -2.5, moved to -1.5 despite 65% public on A&M (sharp action on Pitt)

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Pittsburgh +1.5; sim win prob exceeds implied odds, RLM confirms value

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Pittsburgh | 48% |
| Win % for Texas A&M | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Pittsburgh (+1.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 143.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-13.5, 12.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Texas A&M, but divergent money % and RLM to Pitt side indicate sharp action on the underdog. Math supports fading the public here as sim cover rate for Pitt exceeds breakeven threshold. Game projects moderately high-scoring based on offensive efficiencies and tempo, leaning over the total line.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pittsburgh +1.5 — sim and market signals converge on positive EV.

Highlights unavailable.