Pepperdine vs Abilene Christian

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-02 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 11:07 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Pepperdine / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Pepperdine shows superior adjusted efficiency early season per KenPom trends, home advantage edges cover despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams low-tempo, defensive rebounding strong in recent outings, projecting low-scoring affair under total.

💰 Best Bet #3 Pepperdine / Moneyline / -165 / 62% / Win probability aligns with market after line movement favors home side.

Pepperdine vs Abilene Christian on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Pepperdine 68% / Abilene Christian 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Pepperdine 58% / Abilene Christian 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Pepperdine -4.5, moved to -3.5 despite 68% public on Pepperdine, signaling sharp action on ACU side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on Pepperdine spread; reverse line movement against public supports value, confirmed by early season metrics.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Pepperdine | 62% |
| Win % for Abilene Christian | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Pepperdine (-3.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.2, +6.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Pepperdine but money split shows sharp divergence, with RLM indicating value on home spread. Both offenses struggle early in pace-adjusted efficiency, supporting under total based on defensive rebound % and turnover rates. Fade public lightly where EV confirms.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Abilene Christian — Pepperdine holds mathematical edge per sims and market signals.

Highlights unavailable.