Oregon vs USC

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-02 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 11:12 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Oregon / +1.5 / -110 / 62% / Home underdog with rebounding advantage vs USC’s road struggles in first true road game; sim shows strong cover probability

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 156.5 / -110 / 58% / Both teams play controlled pace early season, Oregon ranks high in offensive rebounding but defenses limit efficiency

💰 Best Bet #3 Oregon / +100 / 52% / Slight value on home team with line movement favoring dog despite public lean

Oregon vs USC on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
USC 65% / Oregon 35%

💰 Money Distribution
USC 45% / Oregon 55%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened USC -2.5, moved to -1.5 despite heavy public on favorite, indicating sharp action on Oregon

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Oregon spread from RLM, home edge, and rebounding mismatch

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oregon | 51.0% |
| Win % for USC | 48.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Oregon (+1.5) | 62.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 154.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 13.2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors USC on the spread, but divergent money percentages and reverse line movement to Oregon signal sharp action on the home dog. Rebounding edges favor Oregon, with USC vulnerable on the road. Game projects low-scoring based on pace and defensive efficiencies.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on USC — mathematical probability favors Oregon side across spread and moneyline.

Highlights unavailable.