NBA

Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-03 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-03 06:41 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Indiana Pacers +7.5 at -110 / 58% Confidence / Simulation shows 56.1% cover rate despite key injuries; line value with Nuggets missing Gordon/Braun and public leaning home dog.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 237.5 at -110 / 55% Confidence / Avg sim total 229.4 points well below line; Pacers depleted offense, 91% public on over creates fade opportunity.
💰 Best Bet #3 Denver Nuggets Moneyline -295 at -110 / 66% Confidence / 65.8% sim win probability aligns with superior form vs struggling Pacers (9 straight losses to .500+ teams).

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 34.2% |
| Win % for Denver Nuggets | 65.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana Pacers +7.5 | 56.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47.3% / Under: 52.7% |
| Average Total Points | 229.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.3, +6.8] |

🏀 Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets on 2025-12-03

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
65% Pacers / 35% Nuggets

💰 Money Distribution
42% Pacers / 58% Nuggets

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Nuggets -6.5, moved to -8.5 at select books signaling sharp action on Denver despite public home-dog lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.7% on Pacers +7.5 (56.1% sim cover exceeds 52.4% implied); +2.6% Under edge with low sim total vs public over fade.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Pacers as home underdog (65%) and over total (91% on 235.5+), but divergent money (58% Nuggets) and RLM to -8.5 indicate sharp resistance. Simulation converges on Nuggets win probability with Pacers covering value amid mutual injuries (Pacers sans Haliburton/Nesmith/Toppin; Nuggets minus Gordon/Braun). Game projects low-scoring with Pacers’ depleted offense (off. rating tanked recently) vs Nuggets’ top defense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pacers +7.5 — sim edge and RLM outweigh public sentiment in depleted matchup.

Highlights unavailable.