Wisconsin vs Northwestern

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-03 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-03 11:18 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Wisconsin / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 62% / Wisconsin’s superior adjusted efficiency (adjO 118.2, adjD 92.5 per KenPom) and home dominance against Big Ten foes support covering, especially with Northwestern’s road struggles (3-7 ATS last 10 away).
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams rank top-60 in defensive efficiency (Wisconsin #22 adjD, Northwestern #45), low tempo (67-69 plays/game), and recent unders hitting 70% in similar matchups.
💰 Best Bet #3 Wisconsin / Moneyline / -425 / 78% / Overwhelming edge in win probability from sims, backed by 8-2 home record early season and key players healthy.

Wisconsin vs Northwestern on 2025-12-03

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Wisconsin 74% / Northwestern 26%

💰 Money Distribution
Wisconsin 68% / Northwestern 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened -8.5, moved to -9.5 early on Wisconsin money despite heavy public action; stabilized as sharp action confirmed favorite (per Action Network data).

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.1% on Wisconsin spread (implied prob 52.4% vs. model true prob 62%); contrarian value fading heavy public on spread with RLM support.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Wisconsin | 78% |
| Win % for Northwestern | 22% |
| Spread Cover % for Wisconsin (-9.5) | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Northwestern (+9.5) | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability (139.5) | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 137.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [Wisconsin -18.2, +4.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: John Blackwell (Wisconsin) / Over Points / 16.5 at -115 / 72% / Blackwell averaging 17.2 PPG early season (65% usage), faces NW’s #112-ranked perimeter D allowing 14.3 PPG to guards.
Player Prop #2: Steven Crowl (Wisconsin) / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 68% / Crowl’s 7.8 RPG (top-40 nationally), NW weak on boards (38% def reb rate), projects 7.2 in sims.
Player Prop #3: Brooks Barnhizer (Northwestern) / Under Points / 13.5 at -112 / 65% / Barnhizer 11.4 PPG vs top-50 D, Wisconsin #18 in opponent FG% (41%), matchup suppresses to 10.8 expected.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Wisconsin aligns with money distribution but line movement to -9.5 signals sharp confirmation rather than fade opportunity; follow the favorite as metrics (KenPom diff +15 eff margin) and sims converge. Game projects low-scoring with both defenses elite (combined opp eff

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