San Francisco vs North Alabama

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-03 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-03 11:30 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 San Francisco / Spread / -16.5 at -110 / 68% / San Francisco’s superior adjusted efficiency (112 off, 102 def per KenPom early 2025) dominates weaker North Alabama, covering in 68% of sims amid home advantage and mismatch.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 144.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams low tempo (SF 71, UNA 69), defensive focus yields avg total 141 in sims, recent games under 150 avg.
💰 Best Bet #3 San Francisco / Moneyline / -1500 / 88% / Overwhelming win prob from metrics, public/sharp alignment confirms edge.

🏀 San Francisco vs North Alabama on 2025-12-03

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
San Francisco 82% / North Alabama 18%

💰 Money Distribution
San Francisco 68% / North Alabama 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened -15, moved to -16.5 despite heavy public on SF, indicating sharp money on favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on SF -16.5; implied prob 62%, true prob 68% from sim/market data.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for San Francisco | 88.0% |
| Win % for North Alabama | 11.2% |
| Spread Cover % for San Francisco | 65.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 141.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8.2, 32.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Malik Thomas (SF) / Over Points / 18.5 / -115 / 72% / Leads SF scoring at 20.2 PPG early season, UNA weak perimeter D allows 25% opp 3PT.
Player Prop #2: Jason Hart Jr. (SF) / Over Rebounds / 6.5 / -110 / 70% / Averages 7.1 RPG, exploits UNA’s poor def reb % (68%).
Player Prop #3: Dallas Watson (UNA) / Under Points / 12.5 / -110 / 68% / Limited usage vs SF elite D, recent 10.2 PPG vs D1 foes.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on SF but money less so with RLM toward favorite signaling sharp support; follow SF side as EV positive despite popularity. Game projects low-scoring due to tempo mismatch and SF defense clamping UNA offense (proj 141 total). Injuries minimal, both teams healthy per latest reports.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with San Francisco — strongest math on spread/ML amid consensus.

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